Each month we highlight voices we respect from around the marketplace. Here’s what they’re saying…
- Equity markets and other risk assets have experienced many downside risks since the start of 2018, including a contraction in trade and manufacturing, rising political uncertainty, surging bond yields last year and shifting Fed policy. Yet, U.S. stock prices remain roughly equal to the start of last year… To a large extent, this resilience can be attributed to the underlying strength of the non-manufacturing parts of the global economy and a renewed phase of global monetary policy easing. Given these trends, we do not expect recession risks to grow for the next six to 12 months. Extremely low government bond yields are forecasting a likely recession, but we do not think those signals are accurate… Read more… – Robert C. Doll, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, Nuveen
- Last week (9/18), the Federal Reserve delivered a highly anticipated interest rate cut of 25bps (.25%), setting the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.75% – 2.00%. Although the rate cut was welcomed by markets, forward guidance was a bit mixed. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement was reasonably dovish, … However, during the press conference, Chairman Powell appeared to confirm that this was part of the mid-cycle adjustment, suggesting a more hawkish stance. …Given the lack of clarity about the Fed’s next move, in addition to other market uncertainties, investors should prepare for more volatility ahead. Read more… – J.P. Morgan Asset Management
- In the UK, new Prime Minister Boris Johnson is threatening a no-deal Brexit. We see a wider range of outcomes ahead – including no deal, a snap election or a second referendum. We see the negative sentiment playing out through currency volatility, and worry about a shock to growth and confidence more broadly. Read more…
– BlackRock Investment Institute
As always, we continue to believe that one’s circumstances and risk profile should determine the appropriate mix of investments, and not media headlines. Please contact us if you ever have any questions or concerns about your accounts or any news you hear.
Note: Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, asset class, or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. Information in this commentary is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.