Inflation moderation, is it enough for the Fed to ease up on rate hikes? Key to when the Fed’s job is seen as largely done will likely be stabilization in areas like housing, purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) and consumer/CEO confidence. The Fed has telegraphed an…READ MORE
The Fed continues to tighten, but is it enough? … or too much? Most investors we talk to think the US is already in a recession or that a recession will start by the end of 2022. We think they’re wrong on both counts… Don’t…READ MORE
Persistent inflation has left the Fed with little choice but to continue its recent run of large interest rate hikes. With monetary policy now firmly in restrictive territory, we expect a moderation in inflation … but at the likely cost of weaker job creation and…READ MORE
Expect continued market volatility as reports on earnings and inflation are digested. We don’t expect a recession like in 2020, or a repeat of the Great Recession in 2008-09, but the unemployment rate will eventually go up, job growth will go negative, industrial production will…READ MORE
Recession? Maybe, maybe not? …maybe not yet. A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation report for June compelled the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain its brisk pace of policy tightening. The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, which could lead the Fed to reduce its pace…READ MORE
