The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, will the Fed continue to raise rates?
- We expect the Fed to raise its rate target by another 75 basis points (0.75 percentage point) this year, to a range of 5.5%–5.75%. We don’t foresee rate cuts before 2024. As more restrictive financial conditions take hold, we foresee the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%–5% by the end of 2023. A U.S. recession in the second half of the year remains our base case. – Vanguard
- So far, the economy has been remarkably resilient to the 500bps hike in the federal fund rate since early last year. It did trigger a financial crisis in mid-March, but that crisis hasn’t turned into an economy-wide credit crunch and recession so far. – Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments.
- U.S. stocks rallied from a four-week low last week (4/28) after tech earnings beat expectations, helping offset renewed regional bank woes. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield fell back near 4.0% even as the market eyes a Fed rate hike this week. U.S. PCE data showed consumer spending losing momentum over the course of the first quarter. Strong U.S. wage growth pointed to inflation settling well above 2% policy targets – why we believe hopes for rate cuts this year are misplaced. – BlackRock
As always, we continue to believe that one’s circumstances and risk profile should determine the appropriate mix of investments, and not media headlines. Please contact us if you ever have any questions or concerns about your accounts or any news you hear.
Information in this commentary is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified. This content is not intended to be tax, legal, investment or fiduciary advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The strategies and/or investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Bernardo Wealth Planning recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.